经济周期波动对企业盈利的作用机理

Economic Cyclical Fluctuation's Impact on the Profit-making of Enterprises

企业盈利是多方面因素共同作用的结果,经济周期的波动对公司盈利有重要影响。经济周期会通过心理预期、利率、价格和社会总需求四条途径对企业的盈利发生作用。由时间序列考察发现,虽然资产收益率总体趋势是下降的,但期间仍存有波动。通过面板数据进一步检验,实证支持了周期影响的存在。

Profit-making of enterprises is desided by many factors, of which economic cyclic fluctuation is an important factor. Economic cycle affects enterprises profit-making through four channels： psychology anticipation, interest rate, price and social gross demand. Reviewing on the time series,we find that although generally the return on assets has the tendence of decrease, fluctuations still exists. By a further test of panel data, emperical reuhs support the fact of cyclic influence.