天水市农业气象灾害对主要粮食作物生产影响的量化评估研究

Quantification Appraisal of Effects of Tianshui Agro-meteorological Disasters on Main Grain Crops Production

通过分析1978～2007年30年影响农作物（冬小麦、玉米为例）生产的干旱、春季低温冻（冷）害、春夏连阴雨、暴雨、冰雹5种农业气象灾害成灾变异率和相应的影响权重，进行了天水主要农业气象灾害灾情综合评价与年景评估。并采用统计学原理逐步回归和多因子回归的方法建立了影响天水市主要粮食作物生产的农业气象灾害量化评估模型，进行了农业气象灾害的量化评估，为有效防御农业气象灾害，最大限度减轻或减免农业损失提供了参考。

Through analyzing the disaster variation rate and corresponding influence weights of 5 agriculture meteorological disasters, namely drought, low temperature disaster in spring, continuous rain in spring and summer, rainstorm and hail which influence the production of grain crops （winter wheat and corn as examples） during 1978 -2007, this study aimed to carry on the synthetic evaluation of main agro-meteorological disasters in Tianshui City and the year＇ s harvest appraisal, used statistics principle of stepwise regression and the multi-factor return method to establish a quantification appraisal model for assess the agro-meteorological disasters would influence staple grain crops productibn in Tianshui City, carried on the agro-meteorological disasters quantification appraisal, for the effective defense against agro-meteorologieal disasters, and to the largest extent reducing or eliminating the agricultural loss.