利用期货市场规避“公司+农户”违约风险的博弈分析

Game Analysis on Risk of Breaking Contract"Company & Farmer" Eludes by Futures Market

"公司+农户"作为一种典型的农产品生产经营模式,在农业产业化经营中占据主导地位。但是在实践中较低的履约率已严重影响了农业产业化的发展,不利于解决"三农"问题。其深层原因在于巨大的变幻莫测的市场风险。期货市场具有风险规避功能,借助期货市场对农产品进行套期保值规避风险,解决"公司+农户"的高违约率问题,推动农业产业化进程,增加农民收入。利用博弈分析理论分析了"公司+农户"的违约原因和"公司+农户+期货"的履约机理。

＂Company ＆ Farmer＂ is a typical farm product producing mode and it is the leading mode of agricultural industrialization. But the lower contract performance ratio affected development of agricultural industrialization badly in practice, which was not helpful for the solution of ＂agriculture, rural areas and farmers＂. Its deep cause was the risk of market＇ s chop and change. Futures market owns risk elusion function. Hedging for farm product eluding risk using futures market can solve the problem of the high contract breaking ratio, promote develop- ment of agricultural industrialization and increase farmer＇s income. The contract breaking cause of ＂Company ＆ Farmer＂ and contract performance mechanism was analyzed.