国际收支贸易调项对中国贸易平衡的影响程度

The Influence of BOP Items' Adjustment on China's Trade Balance

本文首先介绍新修订的国际收支表涉及贸易项目的调整要点,提出应重视加工贸易从货物转移到服务项下核算引起的对中国贸易平衡的影响。接着以主要篇幅对此进行测算和分析,得出影响虽然不小,但不会颠覆货物贸易平衡格局的结论。最后提出关于服务贸易理论和统计制度的四点思考。

This paper firstly introduces trade items＇ adjustment in the newly revised BOP, and suggests to pay more attention to the influence resulted from the adjustment on China＇s trade balance. Based on estimating and analyzing such influence, the paper reaches the conclusion that although the influence is not mild, the status of China＇s trade-in-goods balance won＇t be changed. Finally, four ideas about the theory and statistical rules of trade in service are put forward.