利用组合模型预测油田开发指标

Prediction of the dynamic indexes of oilfield development by a combined method

将灰色理论GM(1,1)模型与水驱特征曲线结合起来,选取产量极差值最低的曲线作为GM(1,1)模型预测对象,在预测出未来产量的基础上,利用水驱特征曲线预测出其他开发指标。该方法既解决了GM(1,1)模型缺少水驱规律的问题,又解决了水驱曲线预测中缺少时间的问题。将该方法应用于火烧山H2油组,结果表明,该组合模型为一套切实可行的预测油田开发指标的方法。

The gray system GM（1,1） model is combined with the water-drive characteristics curves. The output curve with the minimal difference of pole is selected as the forecast object. After forecasting the future output, the other dynamic exploitation indexes is predicted using the water drive characteristic curves. The combined model overcomes the problems that GM （1,1） model lacks of water-drive rules and that water-drive curves lack the time in the future forecast. The method is applied to H2 oil set of the Huoshaoshan oilfield and the results indicat that the combined method is an applicable method to forecast the development indexes of oilfields.