摘要
云是能够对飞行活动产生影响、甚至危及飞行安全的气象要素之一。为了对北京单站总云量进行预报,利用人工神经网络的BP模型,针对不同时次进行关键因子的选取,尝试用多种预报因子的组合,建立了总云量预报模型。试验结果表明:所建立的模型具有较好的拟合、预报精度,并且没有出现"过拟合"现象,对新样本具有较好的泛化能力。
Cloud is one of the order to forecast total cloud cover Propagation） neural net. Different meteorological elements which have great influence on the aviation. In for Beijing single station, we use the nonlinear method -BP （Back key factors are chosen and composed for each foretime. The final model has a good performance in fitting and prediction. There is no ＂overfitting＂ phenomenon in the result either, so the model can be used with new samples.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2009年第1期68-71,共4页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
关键词
BP神经网络
单站预报
总云量
BP neural net
single station forecast
total cloud cover
