一次暴雨过程预报的多模式NWP产品与物理参数的综合分析应用

Case Study on Application of Multi-NWP Model Outputs and Physical Parameters in the Heavy Rain Forecast

对照常规天气图实况资料,检验几种常用NWP产品对2008年7月5日山东一次强降水过程的形势场预报和降水预报,并对其物理量场进行诊断分析。结果表明,暴雨落区与诸多物理量场的配置紧密相关;暴雨区出现在低层水汽辐合中心移动路径上,位于与水汽通量散度强辐合中心和强上升运动中心接近处;暴雨区移动方向与水汽通量大值中心、Δθse(500-850)负值中心长轴方向一致,水汽通量散度低层辐合、高层辐散两者均满足时有利于强降水发生;200hPa高空辐散的抽吸作用远比仅有低层辐合更有利于上升运动发展;地面强降水区出现在200hPa强辐散中心所在处。

Compared with the routine observations, several kinds of NWP products related to the circulation situation and precipitation forecast of the rain process on July 5, 2008 in Shandong province were tested with the physical quantities field diagnostical analysis. The results show that the heavy rain area was closely related to the disposition of lots of physical quantities. The heavy rain area was on the path of convergence center and located between the convergence center of moisture flux and the center of lift movement. The moving direction of heavy rain was consistent with the major axis direction of water vapor flux center and △θse500-850 negative value center. The pumping of the upper air divergence at 200 hPa was more important to develop the lift movement than the low level convergence only.