深圳城市生态安全评价与预测

Ecological Security Assessment and Prediction for Shenzhen

为实现对深圳城市生态安全的评价、预测与科学管理调控,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)概念模型,构建了度量深圳生态安全的评价指标体系,选取层次分析法与熵权法相结合的综合方法对各指标赋权,通过模糊综合法并借助SPSS软件,对深圳城市1997-2006年生态安全水平动态变化进行计算、分析、评价,然后运用逐步回归分析构建评价预测模型,以实现对深圳生态安全的前景预测与完成2006年的生态安全级别特征值的验证。结果表明:1997-2006年深圳城市理想安全和较安全隶属度逐渐变大,极不安全隶属度逐渐变小,显示深圳生态安全的限制因子在不断减少,生态系统发展潜力较大;1997-2005年生态安全水平呈现从临界安全向较安全逼近的态势,2006年达到较安全状态;经模型检验,评价预测模型具有显著的统计意义,2006年预测与研究成果的生态安全级别特征值高度吻合,2022年深圳生态可达理想安全水平。

Based on the pressure-status-response （PSR） conceptual model, this paper constructs the ecological security evaluation index system of Shenzhen. It selects the AHP（analytic hierarchy process） and the entropy-right method to empowering all indicators. Through the fuzzy synthetic method and using the SPSS software, it obtains a result of ecological security dynamic changes of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2006 by calculating, analyzing and evaluating. Then it builds prediction model using stepwise regression analysis, and verifies the security grades of ecology data of Shenzhen in 2006. The results show that： it is an approaching situation of ecological security synthetic indices from less security to relative security of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2005, and reaches relative security status in 2006. The membership of ideal security and relative security will get larger gradually while the membership of terribly security gets smaller. It also shows that the limiting factors impacting ecological security of Shenzhen is diminishing gradually, and the development potential is great; the ecological security of Shenzhen will go up to ideal status in 2022 through the prediction model.