中国工业燃烧能源导致碳排放的因素分解

Decomposition of Energy-induced CO_2 Emissions in Industry of China

在碳排放的分解方面,方法日渐成熟,包括Laspeyres指数法、简单平均分解法（SAD）、自适应权重分解法（AWD）等。许多学者也做过大量实证研究,但基本都用到碳排放强度或者能源消费强度这一因子并且认为其占有绝对地位,缺乏进一步的分解。本文通过对碳排放计算公式的深入分解,将工业燃烧能源导致的碳排放量分解为6个因素,即能源消费总量、能源消费结构、技术因素、中间投入量、产业结构以及工业总量。并借助LMDI分解方法,分析了我国1992-2005年工业燃烧能源导致碳排放的影响因素。结果显示我国经济总量的增长、能源利用效率低以及以煤为主的能源消费结构是导致我国碳排放大量增加的主要原因。而技术（中间投入比重）、行业产值结构、能源结构等因素的变化对碳减排的作用并不明显。因此,加快技术进步、调整产业结构和能源结构、发展清洁能源发电,以提高能源利用效率、转变能源消费结构,可以有效减少工业碳排放量。

There are many articles in the field of CO2 emission decomposition and the methods including Laspeyres index, Sample Average Division and Adaptive-Weighting Division are more scientific now, but many researchers just focused on one factor of carbon emission intensity or energy consumption intensity and lacked further decomposition. This paper presents a complex formula to calculate carbon emission, then examines the factors, including total energy consumption, energy mix, technology, inter-input, industrial structure and total industrial production, which have effects on CO2 emission from industrial energy during the period 1992- 2005 by the decomposition method of LMDI proposed by Anget al. The results show that the gross emission of CO2 induced by the energy consumption of manufacture in China increased rapidly during the period of 1992-2005, especially in 2002-2005 coherent with the economic development path. And the increase is mostly derived from the augment of total industrial production with the characteristics of heavy industrialization, low efficiency of energy consumption and the mix of primary energy with high proportion of coal. Beyond our expectation, the factors of technology （proportion of inter-input） and industrial structure do not have a big reduction of CO2 emission because of the economic development mainly driven by huge investment of infrastructure such as transportation, housing construction and primary manufacture such as steel, cement, chemistry and so on. But the quantity change of inter-input including other unaccounted factors is the primary contributor. The results indicate that accelerating technology upgrade, regulating industrial structure and energy mix, and developing CMD （Clean Development Mechanism） project are the efficient ways to reduce CO2 emissions.