服务贸易与货物贸易自由化对经济增长影响的差异性研究

The Different Impact of the Liberalization of Trade in Service and Merchandise Trade on the Economic Growth

服务贸易具有很多区别于货物贸易的特点,这些特点引发了我们对于服务贸易与货物贸易对一国经济长期增长差异性问题的思考。根据理论分析,本文认为服务贸易对一国经济增长带来的拉动效应、较强的技术外溢效应、规模经济效应以及就业效应等,都使得服务贸易对经济增长的促进作用强于货物贸易。然后,本文选取中国作为代表进行了协整回归分析,验证了本文的推理。笔者认为,我国应该大力发展服务贸易,尤其是新兴服务贸易,通过服务贸易促进货物贸易的升级,从而更好地推动我国经济长期健康、持续的增长。

Trade in service is different from merchandise trade in many aspects,and these differences have led us to consider the different impacts that both of them exert on the economic growth.According to this paper,the author thinks that the driving effect,the stronger spillover effect of the technology,the scale economics effect and the employment effect of trade in service will make it promote the economic growth greater than the merchandise trade.Then,the paper has selected China as a representative to do the co-integration analysis,and proves the presumption.The author considers that China should try its best to push the development of the service trade,especially the new trade in service.Then,it will have a health and consistent economic growth.