基于灰色理论的电子设备寿命预测研究

Research of Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Equipment Based on Grey Theory

利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测可以有效缩短电子设备寿命试验时间,传统建模方法常常会有较大误差,主要因为序列光滑度的改进及背景值的构造存在问题。本文提出一种方法,采用正弦处理建模序列,对背景值进行近似构造,最终建立相应的新陈代谢模型。实例表明改进后的GM(1,1)模型,具有更高的预测精度,可以在电子设备的试验中推广应用。

Using grey GM （1,1） model to predict can effectively reduce the testing time of life on electronic equipment. There are always some big errors in ordinary way of building model. Primary reason is that it has some problems in sequence smooth degree and structuring background value. The paper advances a new method, using sin function to deal with sequence, structuring background value approximately, buihting corresponding metabolism model. It＇s proved in example that the improved grey GM （1,1） model has better precision of forecasting, can be applied in electronic equipment experimentation.