我国外汇储备影响因素分析与汇率制度选择

China foreign exchange reserve influence analysis and exchange rate system selection

本文通过误差修正模型分析了我国外汇储备长期和短期的影响因素,认为短期影响因素是进出口额与外商直接投资。根据模型结论,本文认为继续深化汇率体制改革,适度加快人民币升值和扩大波动区间,利用汇率自身与对进出口额的杠杆作用,直接和间接地将外汇储备控制在合理的范围内。

Error correction model（ECM） is used by thi s paper to analyze long-term and shortterm factors that affect Chinese foreign exchange reserves, and the short-term factor is considered that the amount of imports and exports ,and foreign direct investment（FDI）. According to the conclusions of the model ,it is thinked that we should continue to deepen exchange rate system reform, speed up RMB’s value and expand the fluctuation range modestly, and using exchange rate itself and its leverage that act on the import and export, in order to control foreign exchange reserves within a reasonable range directly and indirectly.