高储蓄两难困境:日本的教训及启示

High savings dilemma: Japan's lesson and inspiration

随着近年来我国经常项目和资本项目顺差规模不断扩大,我国也陷入了高储蓄两难困境。鉴于我国目前的处境与上世纪70年代到90年代日本的处境非常相似,日本的经历对我国走出高储蓄两难困境有一定的启示意义。研究日本高储蓄两难困境干预措施的失败教训,从中得出启示:我国应采取措施减少甚至扭转经常项目顺差的格局,稳定汇率升值预期,通过国际政策协调缓解升值压力,增加社会保障支出,降低居民储蓄率。

With the increasing scale of China’s curre nt account and capital account surplus, China has also faced the difficult position of ＂conflicted venture＂ in recent years. In fact, China’s current situation is similar to the situation of the 1970s to 1990s’ Japan. In order to eliminate ＂conflicted venture＂, revelations of weakening China’s ＂conflicted venture＂ have been made by studying Japan’s experience. Measures should be taken to reduce or even reverse the current account surplus; it is important to keep the stability of the exchange rate;international policy coordination can be used to ease the appreciation pressure; increasing social security expenditure and reducing the rate of household savingsare of vital importance.