我国上市公司财务危机的判断与预警

Judging and Early Warning of Financial Crisis in Chinese Listed Companies

准确识别与判断上市公司财务危机对于投资者具有特殊重要的意义,本文以相关财务理论为依据,将因子分析与选择性模型相结合,利用我国上市公司的实际数据,通过对比分析筛选出对财务危机有显著影响的财务变量,构建了判别上市公司财务危机的因子分析Logit模型。以此为基础,本文进一步引入非财务变量,提出了判别上市公司财务危机的改进模型,并依据该模型讨论了上市公司财务危机的预警问题及数量界面。

Correctly identifying and judging the financial crisis in Chinese listed companies has important meaning for investors. This paper combines factor analysis with selectivity model on the basis of the theory in financial area, uses Chinese listed companies＇ practical data, selects the financial variables which have significant effects on financial crisis by comparative analysis, and builds the factor analysis Logit model for identifying listed companies＇ financial crisis. Based on it, the paper introduces the non-financial variables, brings out the improved model for identifying listed companies＇ financial crisis, and discusses the early warning problem and quantity interface for listed companies＇ financial crisis based on this model.