中国居民卫生服务需要的转型与未来需要量预测的探讨

Transition of chinese health services needs and forecasting of future needs

目的揭示过去15年和预测2010—2025年卫生服务需要的变化趋势,为提高卫生工作的预见性提供依据。方法采用时间序列分析、年龄别分组分析和国际疾病分类分析的方法,对1993年、1998年、2003年和2008年的国家卫生服务调查资料进行分析,并用趋势外推法对未来的服务需要量进行预测。结果中国卫生服务需要结构正在快速向老龄、慢性非感染性疾病转变,未来十几年此趋势将继续发展。但部分感染性疾病未现下降趋势。未来卫生服务总量会不断增加。结论中国卫生系统应根据卫生服务需要变化的趋势提出今后防病治病的重点与措施。

Objective To expose the changing of Chinese health services needs in last 15 years and forecast the future trend from 2010 to 2025, to provide the evidence base for national health planning. Methods Large sample data were from National Health Services Survey in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Analysis of time series, age group categories and international classification of diseases were adopted to examine the trends, and trend extrapolation was used to estimate future health needs, Results Trend of Chinese health needs were changing to cable chronic diseases and the aged people, the trend will keep on in future 15 years from 2010. A few communicable diseases were not decreasing. Total health needs will increase in future. Conclusion Chinese health system should adjust its strategy of health services by the changing situation.