应用捕获再捕获法探讨儿童1型糖尿病发病率

Study on incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus by capture recapture method

目的应用捕获再捕获法探讨儿童1型糖尿病发病率。方法根据捕获再捕获法原理,回顾性调查深圳市1999—2006年所有新发病的0～14岁1型糖尿病儿童,按人口统计资料计算发病率。结果1999—2006年间深圳市0～14岁儿童共发生1型糖尿病39例,其中男19例,女20例;平均年发病率为0.7370/10万;男女性别间1型糖尿病发病率(男:0.7145/10万,女:0.7598/10万)差别无统计学意义(χ2=0.04,P>0.05)。结论深圳市儿童1型糖尿病年发病率为0.7370/10万,男女性别间发病率差别无统计学意义,与其他国家相比深圳市0～14岁儿童1型糖尿病年发病率处于较低水平;而与国内其他城市相比,年发病率处于中等偏高水平。

Objective By applying capture recapture method the incidence of childhood type I diabetes mellitus （T1DM） was studied. Methods According to the principle of capture recapture method, retrospectively find the new cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus among children aged 0 to 14 years old between 1999 and 2006 in Shenzhen area, then calculate the incidence by population census data. Results The incidence of childhood T1DM was 0.737 0/100 000 per year, 0.714 5/100 000 in male and 0.759 8/100 000 in female, no significant difference between male and female （X^2 = 0.04, P 〉 O. 05 ）. Conclusion The incidence of children aged 0 to 14 years old T1DM is 0.7370/100000 per year in Shenzhen area. There is no significant difference between male and female. Compared with those in other countries, the incidence of childhood T1DM in Shenzhen is lower, and with those in other regions in our country, the incidence level is normal or higher.