GM(1,1)灰色模型在拟合我国婴儿死亡率中的应用

Application of grey theory model on forecasting infant mortality rate

目的预测我国婴儿死亡率的变化趋势,为卫生部门制定相应的防制对策提供理论依据。方法利用GM(1,1)灰色模型对我国婴儿死亡率进行拟合和预测变化趋势。结果根据我国1999—2005年的婴儿死亡率建立的灰色预测模型为:Y^(t)=-346.3109e-0.101(t-1)+379.6109,模型的平均误差率为0.03%,该模型精度为优(C=0.2092,P=1.000),预测效果好。结论GM(1,1)灰色模型为拟合和预测我国婴儿死亡率的理想模型,预测我国婴儿死亡率呈下降趋势。

Objective To forecast the infant mortality rate （IMR） and provide the theoretical basis for health department. Methods Based on the infant mortality rate of China from 1999 to 2005 ,we applied the grey systemic forecast model to fit the infant mortality rate. Results The grey systemic forecast model was suitable to forecast the infant mortality rate, and it was testified to he satisfied, listed as . C = 0. 2092 ; P = 1. 000. Conclusion The established model was satisfied. The model showed that the infant mortality rate appeared a descending trend on the whole during the recent 4 years.