国内外油气勘探风险评价研究现状及发展趋势

Oil and Gas Exploration Risk Assessment:State and Tendency of Domestic and Foreign Researches

油气勘探风险是当前石油天然气勘探开发研究领域的一个热点问题,其研究着重关注地质、技术、工程、生态环境等方面的不确定性对整个勘探投资项目产生的不利影响。油气勘探风险评价对降低勘探风险、提高企业效益具有重要意义。通过对油气勘探风险评价的国内外研究现状进行综述,指出评价方法的集成化、评价过程的动态化以及评价内容的全面化是目前研究的发展趋势。在此基础上,从研究的角度、方法和手段三个方面提出了今后的研究展望。

Oil and gas exploration risk is a hotspot in the present study of petroleum exploration and production, which mainly focuses on the uncertainties related to geology, technology, engineering and environment that may exert a negative impact on the whole exploration project. Evaluation of exploration risk has a great significance for reducing risk and improving efficiency. In order to manage the exploration program effectively, it is necessary to predict the probability of the adverse effects and their consequences. This paper summarizes the researches of oil and gas exploration risk assessment both at home and abroad, and points out that the current trend of research is integrated, dynamic as well as comprehensive. The paper discusses the areas that need to be further studied from the perspectives, methods and means of the research.