应用德尔菲法构建武汉城市圈传染病预警指标体系

Developing an Early Warning Indicators System for Infectious Diseases in Wuhan Urban Area:a Delphi Approach

目的根据武汉城市圈传染病流行的特征,构建圈域内传染病预警指标体系。方法采用德尔菲法进行两轮专家咨询,要求专家从及时性、有效性、必要性和可获得性对指标进行评分,并以此作为指标筛选的基础。结果武汉城市圈传染病预警指标体系由3项一级指标、8项二级指标和32项三级指标构成,专家权威系数和熟悉程度均>0.90,两轮咨询专家的积极系数分别为93.75%和100.00%,第1轮咨询协调系数为0.341(P>0.05),第2轮咨询协调系数达到0.542(P<0.05)。结论应用德尔菲法构建"武汉城市圈传染病预警指标体系"具有一定的科学性和合理性。

Objectives To develop an early warning indicators system for infectious diseases according to the epidemic features in Wuhan urban area. Methods Carrying out two rounds of Delphi experts' consultation by letters and e-mails,in which experts were asked to score each third grade indicatosr from timeless,validity,necessity,availability and degree of familiarity views,and the scores were the base for indicators' selection. Results 'Early Warning Indicators System of the Infectious Diseases in Wuhan Urban Area' was consist of 3 first-class indexes,8 second-class indexes and 32 third-class indexes.The active coefficients of experts in the two rounds of Delphi investigation were 93.75% and 100%;the familiarity degree and the authority degree were all over 0.90;the Kendall Wa coefficients of two rounds were 0.341(P>0.05) and 0.542(P<0.05). Conclusions The development of 'Early Warning Indicators System of the Infectious Diseases in Wuhan Metropolitan Area' was scientific and rational.