新成品油定价机制表观合理性研究

A Study on Apparent Rationality of New Oil Product Pricing System

针对各界对新成品油定价机制不透明、调价滞后、油价涨多跌少等合理性问题质疑声不断,对新机制的透明度、规则设置合理性和国内外油价波动契合度三项表观合理性指标进行分析。分析结果表明,新成品油定价机制的调价触发机制透明度较高,不透明主要体现在调价幅度的计算上,这很可能是下一步改革的重点。新机制仍然存在滞后性,滞后于国际油价的时间在20～40天,这种滞后与石油从采购到加工生产再到销售各环节所耗费的总时长相比并不严重,总体影响不大。就滞后性问题而言,新机制存在改革的必要性和完善的空间。新机制采取间接接轨的方式与布伦特、迪拜、辛塔三地原油接轨,三种原油权重相等,这种接轨方式、原油油种选择及权重分配比例是比较合理的。国内外油价涨跌幅度契合度不高,从2009～2011年的平均水平看,国内油价的调整幅度明显小于国际油价的调整幅度,没有充分反映出国际油价的波动。国内油价涨幅占国际油价涨幅的51%,而跌幅却占到66%。与国际油价相比,国内成品油价格并不存在"涨多跌少"或"跟涨不跟跌"的现象,在一定程度上还存在"涨少跌多"的情况。

In response to the public′s questioning of the rationality of the new oil product pricing system,such as its transparency,the lagging of price adjustment and the fact where the sizes of price increases are usually larger than those of price decreases,this article analyzes three indicators for apparent rationality of the new pricing mechanism,including transparency,the rationality of relevant rules and the matchup of domestic oil prices to international oil price fluctuations.The analysis shows that the price adjustment triggering mechanism of the new oil product pricing system is highly transparent and that the calculation of price adjustment sizes is less transparent.Overcoming this drawback will very likely be the focus of a future oil price reform.Under this new system,oil price adjustment is still 20-40 days behind international oil price fluctuations.However,this lag is not that serious compared with the total length of time spent in the whole process from crude oil procurement to processing and sales and has little effect on the whole.As far as the lagging problem is concerned,the new system needs to be reformed further and there is also room for improvement.The new pricing system is indirectly linked to Brent,Dubai and Cinta crude oils and the three crudes have the same weight in the system.The international price linkage,the selection of crude oil products for linkage and the proportions of weight among the three crudes are all rational.In the system,domestic oil prices do not match international oil price fluctuations very well.From the average price movement from 2009 to 2011,the sizes of price adjustments in China were considerably smaller than the sizes of oil price changes in the international market,thus unable to reflect international oil price fluctuations accurately.Domestic oil price increases represented 51% of international oil price increases,while domestic oil price decreases accounted for 66% of international oil price decreases.Compared with the international market,there is no phenomenon where oil price increases are usually bigger than oil price decreases or where price increases are more frequent than price decreases in the domestic oil market.On the contrary,the sizes of price increases are more often smaller than those of price decreases.