基于鱼骨图和AHP方法的北极航线问题诊断

The Combined Application of Fishbone Diagram and AHP for Arctic Route Issue Diagnosis

北极航线问题因为北冰洋的融化预期加快而变得愈来愈重要。中国在这一问题上不能失去话语权,要争得北极航线问题国际机制上的主动权,需要对北极航线问题进行深入研究,为成功争取北极航线权益提供理论依据。北极航线问题属于很难获得定量信息,并且真正需要咨询专家进行解决的重要问题。针对在处理北极航线问题中遇到的复杂和异常的现象,提出利用管理技术中进行定性分析的鱼骨图和层次分析法(AHP)相结合的方法进行问题诊断并进行实际分析,进而讨论了两种方法相结合的优点及应用的局限。在进行实际分析的基础上,讨论了中国面对北极航线问题应采取的策略。研究结果可以帮助了解北极航线问题现状,发现新问题,提出切实可行的方案并帮助实施。

Because of Arctic ice melting faster than expected,Arctic route issue has become increasingly important.On this issue,China can't lose the right to speak,in order to gain the right to take initiatives on the Arctic route issue.Arctic route issue should be in-depth study,presented theoretical basis for gaining rights and interests of Arctic route successfully.With regard to complicated and abnormal issues in the Arctic route,this paper brings forward the approach of combining Fishbone Diagram with AHP to make diagnosis and analysis the Arctic route issue.In the end,this paper discusses the advantages and limitations in the application of such combination.Based on actual analysis,we discussed China's strategy to be taken in the face of the Arctic route issue.The results may help shed light on the status quo of the Arctic route issues,find new issues,and propose practical programs to help implementation.