旅游安全预警指标构建及应用研究

Research on the Construction and Application of Indexes for Early Warning of Tourism Security

旅游业的发展是一把双刃剑。旅游业发展带来效益的同时也产生一系列的旅游安全问题。旅游安全预警就是对旅游安全状态作出判断并提出相应的警示,对于旅游地旅游管理、旅游产业运行和旅游者都具有重要意义。旅游安全预警研究是旅游安全管理研究的重要内容之一。文章首先在分析旅游安全影响因素的基础上,遵循相关指标构建原则,依据一定的指标构建方法,构建了旅游安全预警指标体系。该指标体系包含1个总目标,2个子目标,11个要素和19个指标。然后采用目前应用广泛的BP神经网络模型探讨了指标的实际应用过程。在用11个样本对神经网络进行训练并达到满意效果后将研究区域的旅游安全监测值输入到网络中,得到旅游安全预警观测值并根据报警值域确定研究区域旅游安全状态为优秀。

The effects of the tourism are just like a two-edged sword.They not only bring jobs and benefits,but also come along with a series of security problems during the process.What 'early warning of tourism security' means is to identify the condition of tourism security and give the proper advice.So it contributes a lot to the tourism management of the destination,the development of the tourism industry and the tourists.The study on the early warning of tourism security is also an important composition of the study on the tourism security management.According to the appropriate principles and ways of constructing the index system,this paper firstly sets up the index system of tourism security which contains 1 general goal,2 sub-goals,11 elements and 19 indexes on the base of analysis of the factors affecting tourism security.Then it discusses the practical application process of the indexes with the popular BP neural network.After testing the neural network with 11 samples and getting a satisfactory result,input the actual values of the study area to the network to get the forecasting values.Then in terms of the alarming value range,the security condition of this area is considered excellent.