北京市出口商品结构的变化和预测分析

The Change and Prediction of Export Composition in Beijing

本文定量分析了1988~2007年北京市出口商品结构的变化特点:初级产品比重不断下降,工业制成品比重不断上升;主要出口的工业制成品从资源和劳动密集型产品转向资本和技术密集型产品;在保持出口多样化的同时,出口集中度不断加深,这主要来自于机电产品和高新技术产品在总出口中占比的提高。在此基础上运用球坐标变换的成分数据方法对2009-2010年北京市出口商品结构的变化趋势进行预测,结果显示机电产品会保持并提升其主导地位。最后本文通过分析2002-2007年北京市出口机电产品保持在前十位的HS4位编码商品,预测出未来北京市出口支柱性机电产品是无线电话、电报、广播电视发送设备、摄像机及有线电话、电报设备,包括有线载波通信设备产品及其相似技术产品。

This article analyzes the change of Export Composition in Beijing during 1988-2007,finding that(1) The share of primary goods was decreasing,while that of manufactured goods was increasing;(2) The main manufactured goods exported was changing from labor or resource intensive goods to capital or technology intensive goods;(3) With high export diversification,export concentration was being more and more increased,which stemed mainly from the increased share of mechanical and electrical products exports.Based on the analysis above,by using predictive modeling approach of compositional data through hyperspherical transformation,the article forecasts that during 2009-2010 the mechanical and electrical products will still play a dominant role in Beijing's Export Composition.Finally,by analyzing the first tenth HS 4-digit mechanical and electrical products exports,the article further predicts that the pillars of the mechanical and electrical products exports will be mobile telephone,telegraph,radio and television sending equipment,camera,wired telephone,and telegraph equipment including cable carrier communication equipment,or those uing familiar technology.