基于VEC模型的国际油价波动与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

A VEC Model-based Empirical Study on the Relationship between International Oil Price Fluctuations and China′s Economic Growth

国内外学者对油价变动与经济增长之间的非对称性进行了大量研究,但缺乏系统的实证分析。利用1992~2011年来自美国能源信息署(EIA)的国际原油价格(以WTI代表)和来自中国国家统计局的中国国内生产总值(GDP)的季度数据,采用向量自回归VEC模型对国际油价变动对中国经济增长的影响进行了实证分析。Johansen协整检验和Granger因果检验结果表明,国际油价与我国经济增长之间存在协整关系,国际油价是预测我国经济增长的一个重要因素或先行指标;由于我国在国际石油市场中缺乏发言权和定价权,导致被动接受国际石油市场的价格,因此我国经济增长对国际油价波动的反应存在时滞。建立了国际油价变动与经济增长的VEC模型,反映出短时间内国际油价波动对我国经济增长产生负向影响,即国际油价每增加1%,引起我国经济增长率下降0.056%。为规避油价风险对我国经济增长带来的冲击,建议我国调整能源消费结构、发展新能源产业、提高能源利用效率,以逐步摆脱"能源消耗式"经济增长模式,同时应加强和完善石油战略储备,缓解和预防剧烈的石油价格波动对经济造成的严重影响。

A great deal of research has been conducted overseas on the asymmetrical relationship between oil price changes and economic growth but a systematic empirical study has been lacking.In this article,the author conducts an empirical study into the effect of changes in international oil prices on the growth of the Chinese economy using a VEC model and based on data on international oil prices(WTI) between 1992 and 2011 from EIA as well as China′s quarterly GDP data available from the National Bureau of Statistics.Johansen co-integration test and Granger casualty test results show that there is a co-integration relationship between international oil prices and China′s economic growth.Therefore,international oil price is an important factor or leading indicator used to forecast Chinese economic growth.Due to a lack of the right to speak and fix prices in the international oil market,China has to accept the prices set by others in the international oil market;therefore,there is a time lag in the response of Chinese economic growth to fluctuations in international oil prices.A VEC model depicting international oil changes and economic growth was established to reflect the negative impact of short-lived fluctuations in international oil prices on China′s economic growth.The modeling results show that when international oil prices rise by 1%,the growth rate of the Chinese economy would drop by 0.056%.To avoid the impact of oil price risks on the Chinese economy,the authors of the article suggest the government should adjust China′s energy mix,develop alternative energy industry and raise energy efficiency to gradually wean off the energy-intensive mode of economic growth.According to the article,China should also strengthen the construction of its strategic petroleum reserve to alleviate and prevent serious impact of dramatic oil price fluctuations on economy.