我国发电行业面临的形势和发展道路研究

A Study on the Situation and Path of Development for Chinese Power Generation Industry

截至2011年底,我国发电设备容量已达105576×104kW,非化石能源装机比重合计为27.50%,较2005年提高3.3个百分点;平均供电煤耗330g/(kW.h),较2005年下降11%;线路损失率6.31%,较2005年下降0.87%。发电行业的整体经济性和环保性指标有了较大提升,电力结构通过调整已有了向好的转变势头。但是,火电机组装机容量仍占到70%以上,而其中60×104kW以上超临界参数机组仅占33%,无法满足可持续发展的要求。发电行业正面临着来自市场、资源、环保的压力以及运营的不可持续性、无法为投资者带来回报的挑战,发展与困难都将是长期的。在面临长期发展困难的同时,由于全球能源产业革命、政策支持力度的加大以及较为旺盛的电力需求,也使发电行业面临着难得的历史性机遇。我国发电行业必须加快经济发展方式转变,加大科技投入,促进结构调整,提高可再生能源、清洁能源发电比重,推广火力发电新技术,大力改善火电机组结构,向综合化集约化方向发展,全面风险防范并提升综合实力。只有如此,才能适应未来发电行业的发展要求和走向。

At the end of 2011,China′s power generating capacity reached 105576×104kW,27.50% of which was non-fossil fuel powered(up 3.3 percentage points compared to 2005).China′s average coal consumption in power supply was 330g/(kW·h),down 11% compared to 2005,and rate of electricity loss during transmission was 6.31%,down 0.87% from 2005.The overall economic efficiency and environmental properties of the power generation industry have improved greatly and the structure of electricity use has turned around for the better after adjustment.However,fossil fuel-powered generators still represent over 70% of the country′s total generating capacity and of these generators,only 33% are supercritical generators with a capacity of 60×104kW or above.This is unable to meet the requirements for achieving sustainable growth.The power generation industry is facing pressure from the market,resources and environmental protection initiatives and challenges from unsustainability and inability to reward investors.The difficulty met with in development will be long-term.While facing long-term difficulty in development,the power industry is also facing unprecedented opportunity for development brought about by global energy industry revolution,greater policy support and strong power demand.The Chinese power generation industry must accelerate the change in the mode of economic growth,strengthen investment in technology,promote structural adjustment,raise the share of renewable energy and clean energy sources in power generation,broaden the use of new fossil fuel fired power generation technology,improve the structure of fossil fuel fired generators,develop integrated power generation,prevent risks and enhance overall capability.Only by taking the above measures,can the power generation industry meet the requirements for sustainable growth in the future.