我国电动汽车市场推广分析及建议

Analysis and Advice on Development of EV Market

电动汽车是实现"以电代油"及碳减排的有效手段。同样行驶100km路程,在不考虑电池购置成本的前提下,电动汽车耗费成本18.9元,燃油汽车耗费成本80元,是电动汽车的4.23倍;按照当前电源结构计算,假设电动汽车电源均来自燃煤发电及清洁能源发电,且清洁能源发电不排放二氧化碳,则电动汽车可比燃油汽车降低二氧化碳排放量约42%;同时燃油替代效果明显,理论上6座试点换电站可替代燃油29510～31580t,71座试点充电站可替代燃油77033t,7031个交流充电桩可替代燃油76989t。虽然我国推广电动汽车具有一定的优势,但也面临着许多问题,如电池购置成本高、充电时间长,换电容易带来新旧电池管理及电池产权问题,经济效益不理想,尤其是电动汽车无序大量充电将影响电力系统的安全可靠运行,因此现阶段我国不适合大规模推广电动汽车。技术进步是发展电动汽车的关键因素,目前应加大电池技术研发力度,降低工程造价,提高服务能力,规范电池标准和插头标准,加强充换电设施建设,只有提高电池技术水平及清洁能源发电比重,才能真正推动我国电动汽车市场的健康稳定发展。

Developing electric vehicles is an effective approach to replacing oil with electricity and to reducing carbon emissions.When traveling 100km,if the cost of purchasing batteries is not taken into account,an electric vehicle will cost 18.9 yuan,while an oil-powered vehicle will cost 80 yuan,4.23 times that of an electric vehicle.If calculations are based on the current power source structure,assuming all power used by an electric vehicle comes from coal-fired power generation and clean fuel-fired power generation and the latter source of power generation does not emit carbon dioxide,the electric vehicle will emit around 42% less carbon dioxide than conventional fuel-powered vehicles.In addition,theoretically,six battery replacement stations can replace 29510-31580t of fuel oil and 71 charging stations can replace 77033t of fuel oil,and 7031 alternating charging poles can replace 76989t of fuel oil.Although China has some advantages in using electric vehicles,many problems remain,such as high cost of purchasing batteries,long charging time,old and new battery management and property right issues associated with battery replacement and low economic efficiency.Particularly,the disorderly and intensified charging for electric vehicles will affect the safety and reliability of the power system.For these reasons,it is not advisable for China to promote the use of electric vehicles on a large scale at the moment.Technological advancement is a key factor affecting the development of electric vehicles.For this moment,China should strengthen the research and development of battery technology,reduce engineering cost,enhance servicing ability,unify standards for batteries and plugs,and step up the construction of charging and battery replacement facilities.Only when the battery technology and the share of clean energy-derived power output improve,can the domestic electric vehicle market achieve a healthy and steady development.