大同地区近50年来气温突变的诊断分析

Diagnostic Analysis of Temperature Mutation during the Recent 50 Years in Datong Region

利用估计温度变化趋势的线性回归方程及滑动的T检验方法,对大同地区北部的天镇(1958-2004年)、南部的灵丘(1960-2004年)和中部的市区(1955-2004年)年平均气温和四季平均气温及平均最高(低)气温序列进行诊断分析。结果表明:近50a来大同地区的气温在逐步上升,市区和天镇在20世纪90年代至今经历了一次明显的增温过程,灵丘的增温过程出现在20世纪80年代至今。市区、天镇和灵丘三地增温最显著的季节都发生在冬季,但从全年来看,市区白天和夜间对增温的贡献相当,灵丘夜间增温大于白天,天镇白天增温大于夜间。此结论对于研究大同地区气温变化具有参考价值。

Using linear regression equation of estimation temperature change trend and gliding T test method,the detailed analysis was carried out in terms of mean annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature series of urban district(1955-2004),Tianzhen(1958-2004) and Lingqiu(1960-2004).The results indicated that the temperature of Datong had gradually increased.There was one abrupt warming in urban district,Tianzhen and Lingqiu.Urban district and Tianzhen abrupt warming were in 1990s to today and Lingqiu abrupt warming was in 1980s to today.The warming of three places obviously happened in winter.For the full year,the warming of urban district's daytime and nighttime were all but equal.Lingqiu warming mainly occurred in nighttime,Tianzhen warming mainly happened in daytime.There was very important significance for studying temperature change characteristics of Datong