福建省森林火险气象等级精细化预报

Fine Meteorological Grade Forecast for Forest Fire Risk in Fujian

为提高福建省森林火险气象等级预报精度,降低空报和漏报比例,利用福建省67个气象台站1980-2006年的气象资料,根据修订后的森林火险气象等级预报模式计算森林火险气象等级指数,实现火险气象等级的精细化预报。研究结果表明:(1)森林着火危险度与温度日较差、日蒸发量呈幂函数关系,与日最小相对湿度、降水量呈指数函数关系。(2)修订后的预报模式能够提高预报结果在时空分布的精度。

The study was conducted to improve the meteorological forecast precision and to reduce false forecast ratio and missing forecast ratio for forest fire risk in Fujian.According to the meteorological data of 67 weather stations from 1980 to 2006 in Fujian,indexes of forest fire risk were calculated by the meteorological grade forecast model.Therefore,the fine forecast for forest fire risk was done.The result showed that(1) the risk ratio of forest fire had power function relation with diurnal temperature range and daily evaporation,while exponential function relation with minimum daily relative humidity and precipitation.(2)The forecast model revised could improve the spatial precision of forecast results.