基于AHP-FCE模型的桥梁设计风险评估研究

The risk assessment of bridge design based on the AHP-FCE model

由于桥梁在设计过程中存在的风险未经过很好的识别与防范,导致由于工程设计原因造成的重大事故屡见不鲜。按照桥梁设计的基本生命周期进行设计风险划分,提出桥梁的设计风险评价指标,并且基于层次分析法(AHP)结合专家打分建立各指标的权重,再利用模糊综合评价法(FCE)建立模糊评价集,并利用zadeh算子对设计风险概率和设计风险损失进行计算,进而根据风险评估矩阵得到桥梁的设计风险水平。作为实例,运用AHP-FCE模型对灵江大桥的桥梁设计风险进行了分析评估。

As many risks have not been identified and prevented during the design stage of bridges,result in that a lot of accidents and serious events caused by improper design or design fault often occur.In accordance with the basic life circle of bridge design,this paper divided the design risks into four phases:design concept stage,design planning stage,design implementation stage and the design of the ending phase.The evaluation indexes system of bridge design risk is proposed.Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP),weightings of risk factors are determined.Then the fuzzy evaluation matrix can be get by using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(FCE).The Zadeh operator can be used to calculate the risk probability and risk loss values for the design risks of the bridge.As an example of engineering application,the risk level and grade of the bridge design are evaluated by the proposal AHP-FCE method according to practical condition of the Ling River Bridge design.The results show the presented method can effectively analyze and assess the bridge design risk.