村镇土地利用预警系统设计与实现

Early warning system for land use of villages and towns

土地利用的监测、评价、预警是保证土地资源合理配置的技术依据。该文通过总结土地利用预警研究现状,从耕地保护、建设用地节约集约、生态安全3个方面出发,以村镇为研究主体,提出了土地利用预警研究的总体思路。基于已有研究成果,构建土地利用预警指标体系,研究指标值获取、指标预测预警模型选择和警度区间划定等方法,进行土地利用预警系统功能模块设计及实现。最后对北京市房山区2015年耕地利用情况进行预测预警,得出房山区部分乡镇在2015年将可能出现较为严重的耕地利用警情。结果表明,土地利用预警系统具有动态、实时的监测及预警功能,是保障区域土地合理利用、降低资源浪费的有效手段。

Land use monitoring,assessment,early warning are the technical basis to ensure the rational allocation of land resources.According to summarizing research status of land use early warning,the paper proposed a general idea of research on land use early warning from three aspects of farmland protection,saving and intensive use of construction land,ecological security to towns and villages for the main study objects.Based on existing research results,the indicators of land use early warning system were built,and the methods of indicator values acquisition,early warning model selection and warning degree range delineation were studied.Finally,taking the Fangshan district of Beijing as empirical study area and using the former study results,farmland warning in 2015 was predicted.Part of the town of Fangshan district in 2015 may be more serious on land use warning.The results show that the early warning system has the functions of dynamic and real-time monitoring and warning for land use,and is an effective means to protect the reasonable use of the regional land and reduce the waste of resources.