近30a黄淮海农作区冬小麦单产潜力的影响因素分析

Analysis of factors on impacting potential productivity of winter wheat in Huanghuaihai agricultural area over 30 years

该文以黄淮海农作区的7个农作亚区为研究区域,选择了区域内21个典型站点,利用AEZ模型对各个亚区在1968-1977年(C1情景)和1998-2007年(C2情景)2个时间段的冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力进行分析,并对影响潜力变化的气象要素和冬小麦品种要素进行了评价,从时空尺度上探讨了产生潜力差异的原因。研究表明:30a来黄淮海农作区小麦光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力均有一定程度的提高,平均分别增长了3.96t/hm2、3.32t/hm2,潜力大小为南高北低、东高西低;在小麦光温生产潜力影响因素中贡献率由大到小为:品种(0.44)>气象(0.33)>二者互作(0.22);增长的贡献因地域而异,东北部亚区的光温生产潜力的增长是由于品种对产量增加的正效应抵消了气候因素对产量的负效应,而西南部的亚区的增长是由品种和气候二者的正效应共同起作用的;在黄淮海农作区,由于拔节-抽穗期间降雨减少,水分亏缺增大,从而导致水分对气候生产潜力限制作用增大。

In this paper, light-temperatural and meteorological potential productivity of wheat were analyzed in 21 typical sites from seven sub-zones of Huanghuaihai agricultural area in the period of 1968-1977 (C1 scenario) and 1998–2007 (C2 scenario) by using AEZ (Agro-Ecological Zone) model. Meanwhile, the effects of climate conditions and cultivar on the wheat potential productivity were evaluated in order to find out the reason for the variability of productivity in different zones over times. The results showed the potential productivity on light-temperatural and meteorological level increased by 3.96 t/hm2 and 3.32 t/hm2 from 1968–1977 (C1 scenario) to 1998–2007 (C2 scenario), respectively. The increase of potential productivity was higher in the south and east areas than that in the north and west. The improved breeds (0.44) played a more important role in increasing light-temperatural potential yield than meteorology (0.33) and interaction between them (0.22). The increase of light-temperatural potential mainly depended on the improved breeds in north and east areas, where the climate condition was adverse; while in south and west area the improving of potential productivity was due to both the improved breeds and advantageous climate. In Huanghuaihai agricultural area, water is the limited factor for meteorological potential productivity because of less precipitation during the period from jointing to heading.