太湖流域不同管理模式的社会经济环境系统演化模拟

Simulation of society,economics and water environment evolution in Taihu Lake Basin under different governance modes

基于复杂自适应系统理论构建了社会经济环境系统模型,采用计算实验方法模拟分析了太湖流域在经济优先和水环境保护优先2种管理模式下的动态演化过程,得到了农业与工业经济发展水平、就业状况和水环境改善情况的演化规律.结果表明,在综合考虑社会、经济、水环境的基础上,2种管理模式均能在一定程度上实现经济和就业的增长,同时改善水环境.环境保护优先模式虽能有效保护水环境,却会牺牲部分经济发展和就业保证.不同地区在演化过程中表现出差异性,常州和湖州经济获得较快增长;苏州、上海在就业方面做出较大贡献;无锡和苏州水环境改善效果最为明显.

A system model based on complex adaptive system theory was created in order to explore the evolution law of a socio-economic environment system under different governance modes. A computational experiment method was used to demonstrate the dynamics of economic growth, employment, and discharge of water pollutants discharge caused by agriculture and industry development under modes of governance which prioritize economic development, or environmental protection. The evolutionary result demonstrates that based on the comprehensive consideration of society, economics and water environment both modes of governance not only promote economic growth and employment, but also improve water environment protection. However, prioritizing environmental protection results in more efficient water environment protection, although economic and employment growth is sacrificed to a certain extent. There are some discrepancies between different regions of Taihu Lake basin. Theseare as follows: faster economic growth in Changzhou and Huzhou, greater increases in employment in Suzhou and Shanghai, and most obvious improvement in water environment in Wuxi and Suzhou.