能源可持续发展综合评价指标的建立与研究

Research on Energy Sustainable Development Compositive Index

针对13种可能的洁净煤高效发电技术路线,分析对比各技术路线的发电效率、经济性、污染物排放等指标,并建立了能源可持续发展综合指标(energy sustainable development compositive index,ESDCI)。分析不同的指标权重对ESDCI的影响;并基于我国2030,2050年能源利用的不同情景,分析、预测不同发电技术的ESDCI变化趋势。研究结果指出:2030,2050年超超临界燃煤发电机组(ultra-supercritical pulverized coal power plant,USCPC)是电力工业最主要的高效洁净利用技术;如果采用二氧化碳捕集技术(carbon capture and storage,CCS)技术,多联产+CCS、USCPC+CCS以及整体煤气化联合循环发电系统(integrated gasification combined cycle,IGCC)+CCS是较好的选择。研究成果为确定我国煤炭高效洁净化利用的技术途径提供了参考。

The power efficiency,cost,and pollutant emissions of 13 technologies on clean coal power were analyzed,based on which,energy sustainable development compositive index(ESDCI) was established and studied.The influence of the weight on the value of ESDCI was analyzed.And based on the energy scenario in the year 2030 and 2050,the value of ESDCI of different coal power technology was predicted.The results show that ultra-supercritical pulverized coal power plant(USCPC) is one of most important of clean coal technologies.And if carbon capture and storage(CCS) technology is required,polygeneration with CCS,USCPC with CCS and integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC) with CCS will be preferential options.The results are valuable references for determining the technical routes of clean coal power in the future.