中国地级市市长职位升迁的经济逻辑分析

Economic Logic of Political Promotion:Prefectural Mayors of China

本文试图探寻,有哪些因素影响了地级市市长的政治升迁,如何影响以及在多大程度上影响了升迁?同时,本研究还期待去发现较为全面的地方领导升迁模式。基于现有的解释模型和邓小平"干部四化"政策,本研究首先描述了全国268个地级城市中264名市长的个人背景、教育背景、工作经历以及他们的政治升迁状况。其次,更为重要的,那些在事实上影响了升迁的因素得到了验证。在统计上,多元线性回归模型证实了下列假设:1."干部四化"政策对市长的政治升迁有实质性的效果;2.特定的工作经历可能是官员升迁的必需条件,但不会显著降低他们的升迁速度。现有的研究往往将行政区域的经济绩效与当地行政首长的政治升迁描述为一种因果关系,即较好的经济绩效会提高升迁的可能性,而本研究则提供了另外一种可能的解释(假设3):官员升迁得越快,就会到经济发展水平越好的城市担任市长。由于官员的升迁速率在事实上是先于他们作为市长之任命,因此这个变量被用来预测他们所要担任市长之城市的经济发展水平。数据分析证实了假设3,从而提出了一个分析中国地方政治精英升迁问题更加全面的模式。综合以前的研究发现,我们有理由认为,一方面,官员以前在升迁方面的优势将会有助于他们到一个有较好经济绩效的城市去担任市长;另一方面,这种经济的上优势又将转变成下一次政治升迁的有利砝码。

The study probes factors which actually affect official's political mobility by using the data of prefectural mayors.Quantitative analysis finds that Desg's policy of Cadre Modernization has substantial effect on political promotion of mayors and official's working experience influence their political mobility significantly but not systematically.In contrast to existing studies which contends the better the economic performance,the more likely the governor will be promoted,this study confirms an alternative explanation that the faster the mobility rate of a official,the better economic records of the city where she or he will work as the mayor.Thus,it provides a comprehensive pattern for political promotion.Firstly,officials' previous advantage of mobility rate will facilitate them to be nominated as the mayors of richer cities.And then,such economic advantage also can be converted to political usefulness to advance their further political climbing.