基于灰色预测的未来我国普通高等教育经费来源结构分析

Analysis of the Structure of Fund Sources of China's Regular Higher Education in the Future Based on Gray Theory

依据1996～2003年我国普通高等教育经费总量数据,运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测未来五年内普通高校教育经费总量状况,预测过程中灰色模型自身“小样本”、“贫信息”的特点,使得计算简便且精度较高。并以总量预测为基础,分析未来普通高校教育经费来源结构的发展态势。结果表明,随着我国教育投资体制改革的不断深入,政府在普通高等教育经费投资中的主体地位在相应地转变,而非财政性教育经费的投入比例逐年增加,并在教育经费投入中发挥重要作用。

Based on the data of total funds of higher education from 1996 to 2003, the paper, applying GM(1,1) model, predicts the funds of China's higher education in the following five years. The prediction becomes easier to be applied and more precise due to 'minor samples 'and 'insufficient information ' of GM(1,1) model. Besides, according to the total amount prediction, the paper analyses its trend in the future. The result is clear: the government's main function is changing correspondingly; non-financial educational funds keep increasing and play a more important role in the investment of educational funds.