需求不确定条件下的投资分析

Investment Analysis under the Condition of the Demand Uncertainty

本文考虑到投资受市场需求的冲击而建立了需求不确定条件下的投资模型,然后用随机最优化的方法分析了需求的不确定性对可逆投资及不可逆投资的影响,不论投资是否可逆,需求的瞬时增长率的增长对期望投资总有正的影响;需求的不确定性对投资的影响取决于需求对利润的权重,权重偏大与偏小分别对应于需求冲击起正面与负面的作用.

Given the fact that the demand in the market will influence investment,the paper designs an investment model under the condition of the uncertainty of demand on both of investmen's reversibility and irreversibility by means of stochastic optimization.Regardless of investment's reversibility and irreversibility,the increase of instantaneous growth rate of demand will always have positive effect in expected investment;the influence of demand's uncertainty depends upon the relationship between demand and profits' weight.Whether the weight is big or small is related to whether the demand shocks will have positive or negative influences.