基于多元回归分析的瓦斯灾害预测

Gas disaster prediction of based on multiple regression analysis

为了解决瓦斯灾害给煤矿带来的安全生产问题。以多元线性回归方法为基础,通过对铁法大刑矿4_(-2)煤层含煤岩系的沉积环境,岩性组合特征,煤层顶、底板岩性及其隔气、透气性能、煤的变质程度、区域地质构造、水文地质条件、火成岩的侵入与覆盖作用、以及煤层埋藏深度影响因素进行分析,对未采区煤层瓦斯涌出量进行预测。研究结果表明,矿井开采煤层瓦斯突出危险区域主要为煤层瓦斯含量较大的地质构造与火成岩体破坏相组合的块段。该成果对大兴矿的安全生产具有重要的现实意义。

To solve the mine safety production gas disaster problem,this thesis is based on multivariate linear regression method.Through the deposition environment,the combination of lithological characteristics of coal seam roof,floor and separated lithologic gas permeability of coal metamorphism,regional geological structure, hydrogeological conditions,the igneous invasiving and covering,and analysising the factors of affecting seam depth of the Tiefa Daxing Coal Mine 4-2 seam coal-bearing sedimentary rocks,forecast the no mining area gas emission.The results show that most of the mining coal gas outburst dangerous area is the geological structure and igneous rock destruction combining area of larger coal seam gas content.It has important practical significance for the Daxing mine production safety.