基于GIS的上海世博会游人分布和流动预测分析

Analysis of Visitor Distribution and Pedestrian Flow Mode during Shanghai Expo Based on GIS

2010年上海世博会将在黄浦江两岸举办,通过对展期间游人集中分布的分析可知,世博园浦东会场的中国馆及邻近的水上出入口、主题馆和浦西会场的企业馆区域游人可能最为密集,而部分交通节点附近和浦东西部区域游人相对分散。通过展期内游客流动模式的预测可知,整个世博园区是以浦东中部的中国馆和邻近的外国馆、主题馆、公共活动中心,浦东西部的外国馆区,以及浦西的企业馆区域游人活动频率最高,中国馆区域的过江人流频度较高,而各场馆以及游人密集区通向交通节点的人流相对平缓。基于以上GIS空间分析,提出了如何控制局部地区游人数量和安全有效地疏散游人的场地规划建议。

The 2010 Shanghai Expo would be held in two parts along the Huangpu riversides(Pudong and Puxi).Based on GIS technology,the visitor distribution and pedestrian flow mode were forecasted during the exhibition period of Shanghai Expo.The analytical results of visitor distribution showed that the visitors would assemble densely in the 'Chinese Hall' pavilion with the neighboring water-way exits,the 'Theme' pavilions in Pudong exhibition area,and the 'Enterprise' pavilions in Puxi exhibition area,however,the western part of Pudong exhibition area and most of the traffic nodes would hold dispersive visitor crowds.The analytical results of pedestrian flow mode showed that the visitors would move more frequently in the 'Chinese Hall' pavilion with the neighboring 'Foreign Nations' pavilions,the 'Theme' pavilions and the public activity center in Pudong exhibition area,and the 'Enterprise' pavilions in Puxi exhibition area.The visitor flow crossing the river would be intensive in the area covering the 'Chinese Hall' pavilion.However,each area with high density of visitors and the area between each pavilion and the traffic node might not hold heave visitor flow.According to the spatial analysis with Arcinfo tools,some suggestions relevant to the Expo space planning aiming to the(visitor's) density controlling and flow dispersing were brought forward.