基于模糊C均值聚类与相关性分析的长三角城市群演化探析

Fuzzy C Means Clustering and Correlation Analysis of the Yangtze River Delta City Group Evolution

长三角经济的发展历程实际上也是以城市群体系不断演化的过程。过去对长三角城市群的研究大多停留在对功能、特征的描述,对其空间结构演化的机理缺乏理论分析。文章采用模糊C均值聚类与相关性分析的方法,构建反映城市化发展的综合指标体系,对长三角16个城市在不同阶段的发展状况进行比较,发现长三角城市群演化是伴随地区城市化水平提高,集聚势能的扩散按照城市等级由高到低,沿着点—轴—面路径,通过中心—外围的空间结构不断复制来实现的。研究表明:长三角一体化的形成是整体城市化水平发展到一定阶段,城市群空间体系以及城市功能互动和演化的结果;是整个区域系统由低水平的均质空间向高水平的一体化方向均衡发展的必然趋势。为政策制定者采取有效途径解决区域协调发展提供科学依据。

The economic development of the Yangtze River Delta represented the evolving process of city group. The previous studies about the Yangtze River Delta city group always focused on describing the characteristics and function of them, but lack of theoretical analysis in their evolution of spatial structure. In this paper, we build the city＇ s development index system and use fuzzy C means clustering and correlation analysis as tools to compare the Yangtze River Delta cities＇ development in different stages. We find that evolution of the Yangtze River Delta city group is accompanied by the increasing level of urbanization. The agglomeration effect diffused through the core - periphery space structure by self - replication, from high to low according to city scale and along the path of point - axis - area. As a result of evolution and interaction between space systems and city functions, the Yangtze River Delta integration was formed when the whole area＇ s urbanization developed to a certain level. It is an inevitable trend the regional system develops from the low level of homogeneous space to the high level of balanced integration. This result will help the policy-makers solve issues of the coordinated regional development effectively in the future.