金昌水资源特点及供需平衡研究

Studies on Water Resources Feature and the Water Demand and Supply Balance of JinChang

本文通过建立金昌市人口与牲畜增长规律 ,第二、三产业的GDP增长率规律数学模型 ,计算出在长时间序列中的用水量持续增长状况及根据金昌市农业节水技术和城市生态规划 ,得到农业、生态用水量规划数据。根据水量平衡原理 ,分析了金昌市未来水量供需平衡问题 ,对指导金昌水资源利用 ,具有一定的现实意义。

The mathematic modle of population and livestock increases and the development of GDP of industry and service sector was established. Bacause the water demand of agriculture and ecology in JinChang mainly were determined by local authority, so these data mainly from local government report,and the water demand in future could be calculated. The contents included following aspects: (1)The features of water recources and physical geography in JinChang were discussed. (2) the yearly total water demand and the situation of the each region were presented;(3) The author predicted the quatity of the water supply and water demand of 2010 and 2020 in JinChang. From the result of the prediction we could see that the water still could'nt meet the local economy development. In 2010 ,the water balance between need and supply wonld be 0.8567 ×10 8m 3,and 0.9217 ×10 8m 3in 2020. But if we improved the water usage efficiency ,the water resources could meet our need;(4)Some proposes were given on the issues that existed in the water exploitation and utility.