大坝的地震灾害损失预测研究

Assessment of Earthquake Induced Losses of Dams

提出了大坝地震灾害和经济损失预测的概率方法．文中首先详细地阐述了坝址区地震危险性分析的基本思路和步骤，然后提出了按坝的类型进行坝的地震易损性分析方法，并对坝遭受地震袭击时可能产生的五种破坏等级作了详细描述．利用本文的方法可以计算：（ａ）一座坝在Ｔ年内发生Ｊ级破坏的概率和在给定强度的地震作用下发生Ｊ级破坏的概率；（ｂ）大坝地震破坏造成的经济损失．

A probabilistic method to estimate seismic casualties and economic losses of dams is developed in this paper.At first,the steps of seismic hazard analysis of damsites are expounded, then an analytical method is put forward of seismic vulnerability of dams according to their types,and finally five earthquake damage grade levels of dams subjected to earthquake loads are described.The following can be calculated by means of the proposed technique:(a)the probability of grade J level of earthquake damage which occurs to a dam in T years and the probability of grade J level of earthquake damage which occurs to a dam at a known intensity; (b)assessment of earthquake induced losses and casualties of a dam.