用遥测数据预报导弹落点的误差分析

Error Analysis of Missile Impacting Point Prediction by Telemetry Data

针对利用遥测数据进行导弹落点预测这一方法 ,分析了误差源 ,在此基础上建立并编写了干扰弹道模型 ,研究讨论了这种方法在进行落点预测时所造成的预测误差。计算结果表明 ,仅仅利用遥测数据进行导弹落点预测有很大的误差 。

The error sources of impacting point prediction by use of telemetry data are analysed in this paper.Moreover,the disturbed trajectory model is established,and the prediction error by this model is studied .The results of simulating calculation show that the error of impacting point prediction by use of telemetry data is very large.It is necessary to combine the telemetry data with the ex trajectory measurement to get accurate prediction of missile impacting point.