对油气田产量预测广义模型的完善与研究

THE STUDY AND PERFECTION OF GENERALIZED MODELS FOR OILFIELD PRODUCTION PREDICTION

在前人提出的三种油气田产量广义模型研究分析的基础上,结合目前出现的贝塔旋回和对数正态等预测模型,对已有的广义预测模型进行了改进和完善,提出了一种形式简单、功能齐全的广义预测模型。该模型通过选用不同的参数,即可转化成已有的广义预测模型(包括各自的基础预测模型)。也可转化成贝塔旋回和对数正态等预测模型,真正体现了广义预测模型在理论上的普遍适应性——广义性。这样,结合文献[8～9]的研究成果,即可依据不同驱动类型和渗流特征选取参数,从而对油田产量进行全过程的拟合和预测。通过实例应用,效果很好。

On the basis of studies and analysis of the three generalized models for oil field production prediction raised by predecessors, the available generalized models are modified and perfected with the integration of the B cycle and lognormal model presented today, and a generalized model with simple form and complete functions has been put forward. This model can be transformed into the available generalized model and B cycle or lognormal model by selection of different parameters, which reflects the theoretically general suitability of the generalized model i. e. its generality. This model combining with the accomplishments presented in references (8-9) can simulate and predict the oilfield production all the way by selecting different parameters according to different drive types and percolation characteristics. The application of the model in some cases gained good result.