基于模糊实物期权的基础设施BOT项目价值研究

Application Study of Fuzzy Real Option in BOT Infrastructure Project

投资项目评价的传统方法是现金流折现分析方法(DCF),这种方法的假设前提是估计项目未来发生的现金流为已知的固定值,因此该方法难以评估现金流波动对投资项目价值的影响。从实物期权的角度看,投资决策变量的不确定性会影响项目的价值。本文针对基础设施BOT(建设-运营-移交)项目中投资成本及项目运营收益两种不确定性因素,分析BOT项目所具有的实物期权特性,结合BOT项目价值随时间变化的特点,建立了基础设施BOT项目模糊实物期权模型。运用该模型对项目期权价值进行分析表明:不确定因素会增加项目的期权价值,这个增加的价值有助于投资者从期权角度重新评估BOT基础设施项目投资价值。

The traditional project valuation method is discounted cash flow （DCF） analysis method. The method assumes that the future cash flows are known as the fixed number, so that the method can not evaluate the project value influenced by the cash flows fluctuation. From the angle of real option, the uncertain factors will influence the value of the project. Aiming at two uncertain factors, the investment cost and the annual earning, in the BOT infrastructure project, the paper analyzes the real option characteristics of the BOT project. Considering the BOT project value changing with the time, we establish the fuzzy real option financial evaluation model of the BOT infrastructure project. The option value using the model evaluation reflects： the uncertain factors will increase the option value of the project and the value of this increment contributes to investor to reevaluate the project value of the BOT infrastructure from the option angle.