摘要
根据信息预测理论分析，江苏一南黄海地区M≥6级强震具有显著的可公度性。在回顾总结1996年11月9日南黄海6.1级地震预测的基础上，对南黄海海域1846年以来6级强震可公度性的基本结构及其预测功能进行了深入研究，同时建立了可公度预测模型，对该区未来强震趋势进行预测探讨。结果表明，1999～2000年，该区有可能发生M≥5地震，2002年前后南黄海海域有可能再次发生M≥6级强震。
Based on the theory of information forecasting,the authors think that M≥6 strong earthquakes in the Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region possess outstanding characteristics of commensurability since 1846. The structure and its function for forecast are discussed in detail after summing up the prediction of the South Yellow Sea M6.1 earthquake on Nov. 9, 1996.In the meanwhile,the trend of strong earthquake is researched by commensurability modeling. The results show that the next M>5 earthquake will probably occur in 1990～2000 and the next M≥6 earthquake will probably occur in 2002.
出处
《高原地震》
1999年第1期25-31,共7页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
可公度性
可公度系结构
可公度模型
中强地震活动
中长期地震预报
The theory of information forecasting
Commensurability
Commensurable model
Medium-strong earthquake activity Middle and long-term earthquake prediction
