六安市城市水害及其预测

Flood Hazard and Its Prediction in Lu'an City

根据古代史料和近几十年的气象观测资料，对六安市洪涝灾害的历史状况及现状作了探索，并分析了六安市水灾的周期及背景，最后进行了六安市水灾的灰色预测．

On the basis of the historical date and the rain date in recent 42 years,this paper reviews the history of flood and water flooding in Lu'an City, and describes its current status.The period characteristics and background of it are also explored with the aid of MEM.At last this paper suggests that there may be two flood hazards occurring in 2006 and 2011 through the analysis of grey prediction.