具有随机地震应力积累速率的地震发生概率模型

THE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION PROBABILITY MODEL WITH A STOCHASTIC STRESS ACCUMULATION SPEED

时间可预测模型和滑动可预测模型是两个典型的地震可预测模型，它们均假定了不变的地震应力积累速率作为一种改进，假设地震应力积累速率是个随机变量，在不同的孕震时期具有不同的地震应力积累速率假设地震应力积累上限是不变的，就引出了“随机地震应力积累速率的极大应力水平模型”以鲜水河断裂带为例，运用改进模型进行了实例计算，结果表明：道李、康定、乾宁在30年内发生6级以上地震的概率分别是：0．67－0．85，0．45－0.50，0．23－0．26．

Both the time-predictable model and the slip-predictable model are two commonly used models in the two models, the earthquake stress accumulating speed is assumed to be invariable. In this paper, as an improvement, it is assumed that the stress accumulating speed is a stochastic variable. The value of the stress accumulating speed changes with the changing of time. Furthermore, if it is assumed that there is an invariable upper bound of seismic cumulative stress, then we will get 'the model of upper bound of stress with a random stress accumulating speed.' As an example, the two models are used to analyze the seismic risk of Xianshui River fault zone. It is believed that, in the following 30 years since 1997, the earthquake probabilities of Daofu, Kangding, Ganning are 0. 67-0 .85, 0 .45-0. 50, 0. 23-0. 26, respectively.