青藏高原冬春季异常雪盖与江南前汛期降水关系的检验和应用

TEST AND APPLICATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER IN WINTERSPRING OVER QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU AND THE FIRST SUMMER RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA

应用１９５８～１９９２年青藏高原６０个站的积雪深度资料，对早先分析青藏高原冬春季异常积雪影响高原及其邻近地区大气环流和我国汛期降水的一些结果进行了检验．结果表明，青藏高原冬季积雪与同期５００ｈＰａ高度和前汛期江南降水关系的稳定性较好．多年来，该统计关系用于江南前汛期降水趋势的预报试验，获得初步成效．指出青藏高原异常雪盖作为江南汛期降水预报因子不仅具有可靠的物理基础，而且是行之有效的，值得进一步深入研究．

ome previous findings in analyzing the effects of anomalous snow cover over the QinghaiXizang Plateau (QXP) on the general circulation over the Plateau and its neighbor and the precipitation in China have been tested by using of snow depth data from 60 stations set over QXP from 1957 to 1992. The results shows that the relationship between the snow cover in winterspring over the QXP with simultaneous 500 hPa height over the Plateau and the first summer rainfall in southern China was found to be quite stable. Over the past decade, the statistical relationship was applied to the experimental success. It suggests that the snow cover over the QXP as a predictor not only has apparent physical basis, but also is effective in operational long range forecast. It is well worth studying its climatic effects further. 