The supporting capability of Water and land resources for sustainable increase of yield in North China Plain

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The potential of yield increase in the North China Plain is about 30 billion kg by ameliorating the low yield and medium low yield farmlands and 4 billion kg by reclaiming unused land. Water shortage will be the main limitation to the further increase of grain crop yield. The amount of water shortage is 8 200 million m3 at present, and will be 17 720 million m3 in 2 000. Yield increase can not be realized by using more water in the future. Other factors such as decrease of the area of cultivated land and the grain crop growing area, deterioration of environment and destruction of resources will also affect the development of grain production. Some suggestions have been proposed in the paper for attaining sustainable increase of yield in the plain.