高速铁路客运量预测研究

STUDY ON THE FORECAST OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC VOLUME OF HIGH-SPEED RAILWAYS

兴建具有中国特色的高速铁路已引起许多专家学者的关注，客运量预测是进行高速铁路研究首先要解决的问题。文中通过对基年模式、客运量相关因素等的分析，提出应用交通行为理论对高速客运量进行不同程度的测算，并针对京沪高速铁路预可研的设计，介绍了包括计算机程序在内的一套具体的预测思路、方法。

It was already drawn the great attention of many experts and scholars to buildhigh-speed railways.with Chinese features. The first problem should be solved in the studyon building high- speed railways is the forecast of the passanger traffic volume. In this article,the author has put forward the methods of the different degree estimation of passagertraffic volume of high-speed railways by applying the traffic behaviour theory after analysingthe factors in connection with the basic year pattern and passenger traffic volume, and alsointroduced his forecast thinkings and methods including computer programs based on the feasibility study of building Beijing to Shanghai High-speed Railway.